Establishment of early prediction model for patients with hyperlipidemic severe acute pancreatitis / 中华急诊医学杂志

Objective:To establish an early prediction model with multiple indicators to predict the risk of severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) in hyperlipidemic acute pancreatitis (HLAP).Methods:The clinical data of 92 patients with HLAP admitted to the Emergency Department of our hospital from March 2018 to February 2020 were analyzed retrospectively. Among them, 29 cases deteriorated to SAP and 63 cases did not. Univariate analysis was used to screen predictive indicators related to hyperlipidemic severe acute pancreatitis (HL-SAP), and logistic regression analysis was used to screen independent predictive indicators related to HL-SAP. Then a prediction model was established. The area under (AUC) the receiver operating curve (ROC) was used to evaluate the predictive ability of each predictive indicator and the model for HL-SAP. Bootstrap resampling technology was used to validate the predictive ability of the model.Results:Univariate analysis showed that procalcitonin, D-dimer, C-reactive protein, albumin, cholesterol and CT grade had influence on the progression of HLAP to SAP ( P<0.05). Logistic regression analysis showed that D-dimer ( OR=2.112, 95% CI: 1.022-4.366; P<0.05), CT grade ( OR=5.818, 95% CI: 2.481-13.643; P<0.01) and cholesterol ( OR=1.146, 95% CI: 1.004-1.308; P<0.05) were independent risk factor of HL-SAP. The AUC of D-dimer, CT grade, cholesterol and the model were 0.802, 0.875, 0.665 and 0.927, respectively. Internal validation of the predictive ability of the model showed that the C-index was 0.927. Conclusions:In the early phase, application of the prediction model that composes D-dimer, CT grade and cholesterol has a good predictive effect on HL-SAP.

Comparison of the screening effects between Wells and revised Geneva scores on suspected acute pulmonary thromboembolism / 中华急诊医学杂志

Objective To compare the screening effects between Wells and revised Geneva scores on suspected acute pulmonary thromboembolism (APTE),and to explore a optimum screening method for APTE in the emergency department of China.Methods The study was carried out by using random,crossed,prospective methods to compare the screening effects between Wells and revised Geneva scores for 167 suspected APTE patients in the emergency department of the First Affiliated Hospital of Xiamen University.Results The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve of Wells and revised Geneva scores for screening APTE in the emergency department were (0.917 ± 0.022 ) and (0.927 ± 0.020),respectively ( P ＜ 0.05 ).The diagnostic concordance between the two score systems for predicting APTE was poor (Kappa value =0.276 ). In addition, the difference between their hierarchical discrimination for the possibility of APTE was statistically significant ( P ＜ 0.05 ).Compared with revised Geneva score,fewer patients were diagnosed with low clinical probability of APTE and more patients were diagnosed with intermediate or high clinical probability of APTE through Wells score.The patients with low chnical probability of APTE were excluded from pulmonary embolism in Wells or revised Geneva score.At intermediate clinical probability,the accuracy rate of Wells score for predicting APTE (9.64％) was lower than that (32.84％ ) of revised Geneva ( P ＜ 0.05 ).At high clinical probability,there was no significant difference between their accuracy rate [ (67.24％ vs.86.21％),P＞0.05]. Conclusions Revised Geneva score is more suitable than Wells score in screening suspected APTE patients in the emergency department in our country.

Screening effects of Montreal Cognitive Assessment for sepsis associated encephalopathy / 中华全科医师杂志

A total of 192 patients with sepsis were tested by Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA) for a preliminary diagnosis of whether or not there was sepsis associated encephalopathy (SAE) according to their test results.SAE was diagnosed or excluded after consultations and comprehensive analysis on the basis of clinical manifestations and auxiliary examination results.The scores of the patients in this group were (25.7 ± 3.3) points.The sensitivity of MoCA for screening SAE was 0.776 and its specificity 0.963.The rate of diagnostic coincidence between MoCA and comprehensive analysis for SAE was 0.880.The diagnostic concordance between two diagnostic methods of SAE was excellent (kappa value =0.753 ± 0.048,P =0.000).The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve of MoCA for screening SAE was 0.929 ± 0.019 (P =0.000) ; the optimal cutoff value was 25.5 points; and its sensitivity was 0.779 and specificity 0.962.And negative correlations existed between score of MoCA and age,disease course and co-existing shock or multiple organ dysfunction syndrome (P ＜ 0.05).